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  #1  
Old 01-04-2015, 12:16 PM
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Default How to interpret a 3B%

Recently i was involved in a chat on how to interpret a 3bet % in a hud.
This brought me to the point of starting this thread.

In this example we had about 50 hand sample size.
There was a lag opener with VPIP/PFR of 55/37.
The 3Bettor had a 3bet of 20%.

What would be the best way to look at these stats.
What we could assume that 3bettor made a 3b 1 out of 5, 2 out of 10 3 out of 15 etc.
Then we could include Bayes Theorem and include this 3b in our stats,
So 1/5 becomes 2/6, 2/10 > 3/10 etc. So 3b% increases from 20% to somewhere between 23% to 33%.

Now the question, is the sample size big enough to give us a read.
And what kind of assumption can we make on the 3bettors range?
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  #2  
Old 01-04-2015, 03:56 PM
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You had a 50 hand sample size overall . That means you probably have a 15-20 hand sample size on his 3bet because he doesn't always have the chance to 3bet . They guy has probably 3bet 3 or 4 times over the whole 50 hands to get that 20% stat . Very very few players would have a true 3bet stat of 20% . Thats insanely high unless its hu
So Id say we can infer that he's not a nit who only 3bets QQ+ and is probably 3betting for value with a few bluffs sometimes . And ofc it vastly depends on position also

Last edited by Frogman3 : 01-04-2015 at 04:04 PM.

  #3  
Old 01-05-2015, 02:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frogman3 View Post
You had a 50 hand sample size overall . That means you probably have a 15-20 hand sample size on his 3bet because he doesn't always have the chance to 3bet . They guy has probably 3bet 3 or 4 times over the whole 50 hands to get that 20% stat . Very very few players would have a true 3bet stat of 20% . Thats insanely high unless its hu
So Id say we can infer that he's not a nit who only 3bets QQ+ and is probably 3betting for value with a few bluffs sometimes . And ofc it vastly depends on position also
yeh i agree bear to chat dr.j had was with me and ive just swaped pc i knew the guy id and he was a agro 3b'or plus like u can get true read of 3b's even over 50-75 hands like if guy is running at 11/9 20% 3b over 75 hands its clear he just had good hands apose to 26-23 20% 3b he will be lighter imho
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Old 01-05-2015, 04:12 PM
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theres alot of verables to conmsider another one is your own image like is really tighten 3/b wise u can 4b a hell of a lot wider as apose to a elag who need to be slightly tighter vs non lags
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  #5  
Old 01-05-2015, 11:17 PM
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Yeh theres a big difference between a loose bad player who is just 3betting a rly wide range and a good laggy player who is 3betting selectively v the right people in the right spots

  #6  
Old 01-06-2015, 12:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrJustice View Post

Now the question, is the sample size big enough to give us a read.
And what kind of assumption can we make on the 3bettors range?
You can always gain some benefit even from very small samples... even right down as low as 1 hand! So with 50 hands we can certainly make plenty of informed guesses, even if they might not pass the rigours of statistical purists.

To make an assessment on the range we should first try to cast our eye over the other PFRs at the table, and the fold to 3B of the raiser. Knowing the table size is also obv an important factor. Depending on the PFRs we should be able to get a better feel for the number of opportunities to 3bet that may have occured. And the smaller the table size, the less the opportunities. From these we should be able to make an assessment on the nature/reliability of the stat and thus the breadth of the range. From the fold to 3b stat of the raiser we should be able to enhance that range still further.
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  #7  
Old 01-06-2015, 02:08 PM
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It's too bad i don't have the exact numbers of the time as Char told us it's one of his hands.

Looked up the spot as it was BOOMED!
http://www.boomplayer.com/poker-hand...777_701572984E

It's right type of hand to do it with, but wasn't sure about the stack size. This seems a little bit too high variance spot, although i didnt dislike the spot completely.
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  #8  
Old 01-06-2015, 02:31 PM
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Tbh even v a nutter this hand is prob too weak to go w/. That sample is slightly small, but people do over 3b in 6m. A suited BW or something plays much better in this spot, specifically in 6m as he can have handsl ike 99 TT for value which bury 56s but QJs does good v. I'd need more info to be even sticking those hands in though likely.
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  #9  
Old 01-06-2015, 03:21 PM
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Yeh no point shoving that

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Old 01-06-2015, 05:34 PM
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well i like the spot if im honest no point lieing about it or even bullshitting opener was v.lag 3b'or was lag good spot 6max
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Old 01-06-2015, 05:45 PM
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AK AQ are basically the only hands in his callingrange that we do good against, and by that, "good" means we're still trailing 4/6. against the rest we're a HUUUGGE dog.

Guess the thread is not rly about analysing the hand, but opponent being LAG doesnt mean we can blatantly assume he's going to be ultralight everytime when he 3bets from UTG1, which IMO is kinda what you're speculating on.
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Old 01-06-2015, 05:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jappie007 View Post
AK AQ are basically the only hands in his callingrange that we do good against, and by that, "good" means we're still trailing 4/6. against the rest we're a HUUUGGE dog.

Guess the thread is not rly about analysing the hand, but opponent being LAG doesnt mean we can blatantly assume he's going to be ultralight everytime when he 3bets from UTG1, which IMO is kinda what you're speculating on.
but its not utg+1 its 6max lol im not saying ill allways take this spot agesnt these players just spot smelt like he was at it i went with my insint i mean if ppl dis agree on it its your shout rele i didnt ask for it to be anerlized even
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  #13  
Old 01-06-2015, 06:54 PM
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Tbh it's really hard to calculate, but chuck the hand into icmizer and give him a rough 3b/f and 3b/c range then the opening and OC range for the OR, and let's see what the numbers say?

Also char, taking positive criticism is a must as a poker player. I make tons of mistakes all of the time, it's helpful to notice these in your growth as a player.
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Old 01-06-2015, 07:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by no1yidmax View Post
Tbh it's really hard to calculate, but chuck the hand into icmizer and give him a rough 3b/f and 3b/c range then the opening and OC range for the OR, and let's see what the numbers say?

Also char, taking positive criticism is a must as a poker player. I make tons of mistakes all of the time, it's helpful to notice these in your growth as a player.
im not saying its 100% corrert but its quite out of order dr.j posting this with out even asking me ffs
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Old 01-06-2015, 07:26 PM
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[18:41:43] Jasper: want to bet that the 3b% thread is going to explode?

called it!!
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Old 01-07-2015, 11:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jappie007 View Post
[18:41:43] Jasper: want to bet that the 3b% thread is going to explode?

called it!!
hardly say it exploded
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Old 01-07-2015, 12:26 PM
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1 thing id definatly like to say is this forum does'nt have a vast amount of very lag players like i appoeach poker seing a spot thinking can i raise here and yeh im bound to make some mistakes but if u think a guy is at it your cards are less important the "spot" becomes more important ok maybe not in this spot becasue im putting myself allin but 56s isnt a bad hand to do it with id perfere 56s than jq or kjs here we are live agesnt his non pairs with a flush str8 and any pair possibility even vs aa kk qq jj ( tt) this hand might even fold my hand looks really strong here the way i 4b jamed like 56s isnt as bad as you guys possibly think like maybe its not the best way to play the hand maybe i shpould fold this spot and yeh this time it could be a mistake but im trying to make myself into a very good lag reg here and im not saying either way if i think its good or not in this thread .

as for lagy play i feel this is my strongest part of my game by a country mile and like light 3betting 4betting is a asberlute must vs the right p[layers im not afraid to 4b fold asberlute garbage i really feel im learning from making mistakes and i feel like surfers isnt rele lagy enough in its players.
we all need to work on getting lager and playing non basic yeh basic can make you money but lag can make you shead loads more

my longest post ever on surfers perhaps
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Last edited by char : 01-07-2015 at 12:36 PM.

  #18  
Old 01-07-2015, 12:32 PM
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The most important thing is, that you thought this through. Although people might think (incl me) this is probably not the most optimal play for this spot.

However i think the reasoning is logical, therefor its far from a bad play.

Working on your playing style comes with changes for good and for bad. By studying these spots your take this with you to the next similar spot.
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  #19  
Old 01-07-2015, 12:44 PM
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Originally Posted by DrJustice View Post
The most important thing is, that you thought this through. Although people might think (incl me) this is probably not the most optimal play for this spot.

However i think the reasoning is logical, therefor its far from a bad play.

Working on your playing style comes with changes for good and for bad. By studying these spots your take this with you to the next similar spot.
i have been studying quite a bit dr.j also
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  #20  
Old 01-07-2015, 01:03 PM
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I get that 56s doesnt do terrible vs his unpaired range, but a hand like KQ blocks a big part of his calling range and will therefore generate more folds if we decide to 4b jam it.

let's assume a calling range of of 99+ KQo+ AJs+. Not sure if that's completely accurate, but it sounds at least close to a good calling range.

vs 56s that's
6* 99, 6*TT .... 6*AA = 36 combo's of pairs
KQo = 12 combo's + KQs = 4 combo's = 16 combo's of KQ
AJs = 4 combo's
AQ (both suited and offsuited) = 16 combo's
AK = 16 combo's

so a total of 88 combinations he's going to be 3b/calling with. against all of them we're trailing at least by a bit, and against 41% of his calling range we're getting smashed

assume we have KQ

there's 6* 99 - JJ = 18 combo's
3* QQ and 3* KK = 6 combo's
6 * AA = 6 combo's

KQ = 9 combo's
AJs still = 4 combo's
AQ = 12 combo's
AK = 12 combo's

so a total of 67 combo's that he's going to call us with. not only does having KQ cut away +/-25% of his calling range, but against roughly 40% we're flipping/ splitting (99-JJ, KQ) but the hands we're crushed against (AA/KK) only makes up only 13.5% of his range.


The above is obviously completely disregarding the UTG player who opened the pot with a certain range which also has hands in it that he's going to call w/.


But anyway, for ease, if you could set up a reasonable 3betting range for villain, it's easy to just count combo's. for all I know 4b jamming 56s there is going to be profitable. but I really don't understand why you would prefer jamming 56s rather than KQo.
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  #21  
Old 01-07-2015, 01:17 PM
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ill post later (edit)
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  #22  
Old 01-07-2015, 01:29 PM
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so at the point that we want to jam there's roughly 1800 in the pot, and we jam for roughly 5800 total.

Let's assume vs a UTG open he's going to 3b 15% of his hands, which I would say is more than he's going to do realistically. But for the sake of him being a LAG let's take 15% being:

77+,A7s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo (15.4%)

77+ = 48 pairs
A7s+ = 28 suited aces
K9s+ = 16 suited kings
Q9s+ = 12 suited queens
JTs = 4 suited jacks
ATo+ = 48 offsuited aces
KTo+ = 36 offsuited kings
QJo = 12 offsuited queens

a total of 204 hands he's going to 3bet w/. He calls w/ 88 of those hands so about 43% of the time we're getting called.

57% of the time we win 1800
43% of the time we're a 33/67 dog for a 12000 pot. meaning on average we're going to lose 1800 chips

so by assuming these ranges, and assuming UTG is folding 100% of the time we make +/- 250 chips
So in that scenario it's about EV, and prob not as bad as it seemed

however, I doubt villain is going to be 3betting this light w/ only 40BB to start w/, so I expect that his r/c range is going to be more than 43% of his openingrange.
Also UTG raiser is very far from folding 100% of the time

so overall you're going to lose money jamming 56s here. how much I don't rly know. completely depends on UTG's openingrange and his calling range ofc.
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  #23  
Old 01-07-2015, 01:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jappie007 View Post
so at the point that we want to jam there's roughly 1800 in the pot, and we jam for roughly 5800 total.

Let's assume vs a UTG open he's going to 3b 15% of his hands, which I would say is more than he's going to do realistically. But for the sake of him being a LAG let's take 15% being:

77+,A7s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo (15.4%)

77+ = 48 pairs
A7s+ = 28 suited aces
K9s+ = 16 suited kings
Q9s+ = 12 suited queens
JTs = 4 suited jacks
ATo+ = 48 offsuited aces
KTo+ = 36 offsuited kings
QJo = 12 offsuited queens

a total of 204 hands he's going to 3bet w/. He calls w/ 88 of those hands so about 43% of the time we're getting called.

57% of the time we win 1800
43% of the time we're a 33/67 dog for a 12000 pot. meaning on average we're going to lose 1800 chips

so by assuming these ranges, and assuming UTG is folding 100% of the time we make +/- 250 chips
So in that scenario it's about EV, and prob not as bad as it seemed

however, I doubt villain is going to be 3betting this light w/ only 40BB to start w/, so I expect that his r/c range is going to be more than 43% of his openingrange.
Also UTG raiser is very far from folding 100% of the time

so overall you're going to lose money jamming 56s here. how much I don't rly know. completely depends on UTG's openingrange and his calling range ofc.
this is your opinion we are all entiltled to are opinions imho im not gonna say any more on it as i didnt even want it on here in the 1st place and im now not rele wanting to grind today so im off to play xbox one
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  #24  
Old 01-07-2015, 01:41 PM
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It's actually a rly ez hand to work out because 65s has roughly the same equity v any reasonable calling range . You're always going to have about 30% equity when called , even if its by QQ+,AK or by 77+ AT+ KQ

Costs you 5552 to shove and when called you lose 1916 chips on avg . You win 1820 when they both fold . So you need them both to fold 52% of the time

Hard to say whether you get folds enough but I'd prefer to do it against tighter opponents I think because a loose call by them is obv correct when you have 65
Against loose opponents you want to shove a linear range here like maybe 99+ AJs AQo and the bluff component is the weaker hands of that range . Against tighter opponents you want to shove a polarised range of maybe QQ+ AK and a couple of bluffs like 65s and 99 TT AQo etc would be folds

Last edited by Frogman3 : 01-07-2015 at 01:51 PM.

  #25  
Old 01-07-2015, 01:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frogman3 View Post
It's actually a rly ez hand to work out because 65s has roughly the same equity v any reasonable calling range . You're always going to have about 30% equity when called , even if its by QQ+,AK or by 77+ AT+ KQ

Costs you 5552 to shove and when called you lose 1916 chips on avg . You win 1820 when they both fold . So you need them both to fold 52% of the time
i felt they both would mark i dunno what else i can say im rele off npow tho fifa is calling my name
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